Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 63,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 63,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 70,000.
Bitcoin has come under pressure in the past few days after rising to the important resistance level at $69,300 on Monday. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of 65,155, which is much lower than the year-to-date high of $73,800.
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Bitcoin’s retreat has mirrored the performance of American indices. The Dow Jones index dropped by 0.96% on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.92% and 1.60%, respectively.
American bonds have also retreated, with their bond yields rising to the highest level since July as odds of a more hawkish Federal Reserve continue. The market is simply repricing its Fed expectations.
A few weeks ago, the consensus was that the bank would cut rates by 0.50% in the final two meetings of the year. Now, however, the view is that it will cut rates by 0.25% in November and a similar one in December. There is also a possibility that it will avoid cutting since the labor market has been quite strong.
Bitcoin’s performance is also because of the rising jitters about the upcoming American election. Polling data shows that the race between the two candidates is close across all battleground states.
The crypto industry favors Donald Trump, who has come out in support of the sector. For example, he has vowed to fire Gary Gensler as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair if he wins. He has also said that he wants the US to become the crypto capital of the world.
However, historically, Bitcoin does well regardless of who is in the White House. Also, easing regulations could make the industry less safe than it is today.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair pulled back to a low of 65,100 in the overnight session. This decline happened after the pair retested the key resistance point at 69,300, which coincides with the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March.
The pair has remained above the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point. Also. it has moved below the first support of the Schiff pitchfork tool.
Therefore, Bitcoin will likely bounce back as bulls attempt to retest the key resistance point at 70,000. More gains will be confirmed if it rallies above this week’s high of 69,300.
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