Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 58,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 64,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 61,500 and a take-profit at 64,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 58,000.
Bitcoin continued falling during the overnight session as odds of a more hawkish Federal Reserve rose. The BTC/USD currency pair retreated for three consecutive days, reaching a low of 60,500, much lower than this week’s high of 64,457.
Bitcoin’s retreat continued after the Federal Reserve published minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. In it, the bank decided to cut interest rates by 0.50% as officials expressed concerns about the job market.
Minutes released on Wednesday showed that the decision to deliver a jumbo cut was not unanimous. Some officials worried that a jumbo rate cut would stimulate inflation in the coming months.
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The minutes also signaled that officials were ready to slow the pace of cuts if inflation moves sustainably to the 2% target as the labor market improves. There are signs that the labor market is moving in the right direction as the unemployment rate retreated from 4.3% in July to 4.1%.
Bitcoin often reacts to the actions by the Federal Reserve because it is often seen as a safe haven. In most cases, it rises when the Fed points to a more dovish tone, and vice versa.
The BTC/USD pair also retreated as enthusiasm about China’s stimulus waned, leading to a sharp decline in the country’s stocks. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index has retreated by over 12.9% from its highest point this month. Other Chinese indices like the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite fell by over 5%.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair peaked at 73,800 earlier this year, and has constantly formed a series of lower lows and higher lows. It has now remained stuck inside the falling wedge chart pattern.
Bitcoin has moved between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has avoided forming a death cross, one of the riskiest patterns in the market.
The BTC/USD pair has remained below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point of 62,430. At the same time, the percentage price index (PPO) has tilted downwards and is nearing the neutral point.
Therefore, after failing to retest the upper side of the falling wedge, there is a risk that the coin will continue falling in the coming days. If this happens, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next point at 58,000.
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