Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 64,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 59,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 59,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 64,000.
Bitcoin held steady on Monday morning as the recent consolidation continued. The BTC/USD currency pair was trading at 62,605, a few points above last week’s low of 59,933.
Bitcoin, like other assets, reacted to the latest US jobs numbers and the fading chances of a more dovish Federal Reserve.
These numbers mean that the Fed will likely deliver fewer cuts than expected. In a statement on Friday, Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, warned that the Fed likely erred when it delivered a jumbo interest rate cut in the last meeting.
Bitcoin and other risk assets like stocks do well when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. As such, the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes and Thursday’s US consumer price index (CPI) data.
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The BTC/USD pair is also reacting to the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, where Israel has continued pounding Lebanon. Israel has also hinted that it will launch a major retaliatory attack on Iran. Analysts believe that the attack will lead to a prolonged war that will involve the US.
Bitcoin is expected to do well if the war continues. In a recent statement, analysts at Blackrock, the biggest asset manager in the world, noted that Bitcoin has done well in the last major geopolitical events.
Bitcoin also reacted to Friday’s ETF inflows. All ETFs added over $25 million on Friday, bucking a three-day trade in which it lost almost $400 million.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin bottomed at $59,875 last week and has crawled back to over $62,000. It has moved above the Supertrend indicator, which combines elements of the moving average and the average true range (ATR).
The BTC/USD pair has also risen above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the MACD indicator has remained above the zero line. However, its bars have moved below the zero line, pointing to a bearish divergence.
Bitcoin will likely remain in this range this week as investors wait for the next catalyst. A sustained BTC/USD recovery will be confirmed if it rises above the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March, this year. Such a move will confirm more upside, with the next point to watch being 70,000.
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