- The GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain under pressure in the coming days, with any bouts of strength likely to be short-lived.
- As we previously expected for GBP/USD, the downside was favoured as the exchange rate was capped by the 9-day moving average.
- Fast forward to this week and the same holds true: the exchange rate remains under pressure from the 9-day moving average, with the downside favoured for the next five days, with a target at 1.2909 support.
Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
The USD momentum certainly stalled during the latter half of the previous week, leading some to believe that the downtrend is starting to subside. GBP/USD has tried to recover amid USD weakness. However, the rally failed to break above the 9-day moving average at 1.2995, indicating a clear lack of appetite to bet against the USD in the face of impending event risks.
Overall, risk management fundamentals suggest that standing in the way of GBP/USD weakness is unwise at this stage, and those looking to buy the dollar should be able to shed some of their exposure ahead of the US vote next Tuesday. Ahead of the November 5 election, we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls figures due out next Friday.
As is clear, the US dollar's attack in October was supported by a slew of economic data releases that beat consensus and talked about a strong economy where there is no urgent need for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
After entering the month believing that another 75bp of cuts from the Fed were needed, the market is now locked into expecting just one cut. This repricing is certainly significant and may be coming to an end, which could ease the downside pressure on GBP/USD and spark a recovery and a period of neutrality.
However, a strong US Labor market reading on Friday is likely to help US bond yields and the dollar and weigh on GBP/USD.
At the same time, we expect the US election to keep the market focused throughout all of this. What we have seen in recent days is that the odds of a Trump win are consistent with the strength of the dollar. The odds that the market is assuming are certainly settling around a 65% chance of a Trump win, and settling around this threshold could ease the downside pressure on GBP/USD in the coming days. However, we believe that financial markets will remain nervous ahead of the vote, with uncertainty remaining high. Clearly, this is fertile ground for the US dollar and can only add to the sense that GBP/USD is biased to the downside.
Also, this is an important week for the pound as the UK government will release its budget on Thursday. Obviously, we know that this budget is likely to be tough for businesses and investors and therefore a potential headwind for growth. This could weigh on the pound, especially if the market believes that the new tax increases will reduce the UK’s growth potential.
However, analysis suggests that the budget will be expansionary as the Chancellor has changed the UK's fiscal rules to allow her to borrow more money to invest in projects that could boost the UK's growth potential. Also, some estimates suggest that the growth boost could be as much as 0.50% in 2025, which would require the Bank of England to be more cautious about cutting interest rates. This would amount to a positive outcome for the pound.
At the same time, the risks to the pound are that the market does not accept expectations of increased borrowing, similar to the reaction to Liz Truss’s aborted 2022 mini budget which caused the pound to collapse. However, all analysts say they have seen and heard enough to believe that this is unlikely, so we believe the budget poses little risk to the pound.
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