- The price of gold has rebounded above $2,670 per ounce after two consecutive sessions of decline, as escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to bolster demand for safe-haven assets.
- Reports indicate that Lebanese forces withdrew from the border with Israel late on Monday as an Israeli ground invasion appeared imminent, following the Israeli killing of a Hezbollah leader, which escalated regional tensions.
Meanwhile, recent comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that the recent large US interest rate cut should not be interpreted as a sign of similarly aggressive future actions capped gains. Also, he indicated that further cuts are likely to be smaller increments of a quarter of a percentage point. Likewise, the odds of another 50 basis point US rate cut in November are currently at 37%, compared to more than 50% a week earlier. Now, investors are looking ahead to more economic data, including the US jobs report, JOLTS, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs.
Amid this performance, 10-year Treasury yields rose after Powell’s comments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.7% on Tuesday, its lowest in nearly two weeks, as the focus shifted to growth. Furthermore, the ISM manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower than expected and continued to point to a prolonged contraction in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, US job openings unexpectedly increased, suggesting that the Labor market remains resilient. Meanwhile, financial markets have lowered their expectations for a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November to around 37%, down from 53% on Monday.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had indicated in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics that the central bank would opt for smaller interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings and that the recent 50 basis point rate cut was not a sign of similar moves in the future. Also, he explaining that the central bank is "not on any predetermined path." However, traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by another 75 basis points this year.
Another factor affecting the gold market, the rise in the US dollar index due to tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar rose above 101 due to investor concerns following reports that Iran might attack Israel, prompting the US to prepare its defences. Obviously, this geopolitical tension has made the US dollar more attractive as a safe haven. Meanwhile, US manufacturing remained in decline, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI reading at 47.2, indicating six months of contraction. On the positive side, job openings rose to 8.04 million, beating expectations.
On the economic side and regarding the US Labor market, the number of employees who left their jobs in the United States fell to the lowest level in 4 years. The number of employees who left their jobs in the United States fell to 3.084 million in August 2024 from 3.243 million in the previous month, the lowest level since August 2020. Also, The rate of employees who voluntarily left their jobs as a percentage of total employment fell to 1.9% from 2% in the previous month. According to stock trading platforms, US stocks start the fourth quarter in red. US stock losses extended at the beginning of the fourth quarter as markets were weighed down by rising geopolitical risks, Labor strikes, and a set of new economic data. Accordingly, the Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones fell by about 1%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.7%. Riskier assets came under renewed pressure from U.S. intelligence signals that Iran is preparing to attack Israel with ballistic missiles, pushing investors toward safer assets. Also, stocks were pressured by an extended strike by ILA workers at major U.S. ports and the risk of further supply chain disruptions.
On the economic data front, the ISM purchasing managers' index pointed to another sharp contraction in US manufacturing activity, although lower producer prices added room for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Also, The JOLTS report indicated a rebound in job openings. Moreover, Shares of ZIM Shipping and Maersk ADRs fell 7% and 5%, respectively, amid the fallout from port strikes. Meanwhile, shares of Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom fell between 3% and 2% to set the pace for technology.
Gold Price Analysis and forecast Today:
According to today's gold analysts' forecasts, the spot gold price will remain in an overall upward trend. Technically, there may be an opportunity to move towards the next historical resistance of $2,700 per ounce if global geopolitical tensions increase and the US dollar weakens. Considering that the financial markets are also cautiously awaiting the announcement of US jobs figures at the end of the week, which will have a strong reaction on the future of US central bank policy.
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