- Without a doubt, the gold market has been one of the big winners over the last couple of months, and of course November could very well see more of the same.
- October has seen a lot of volatility, but it’s almost all to the upside.
- As I write this analysis, the market is likely to be looking at the $2800 level as its next barrier, and the fact that we are so overstretched does lead me to believe that perhaps a bit of a pullback is coming. Full disclosure here: I thought this last month as well!
All of this being said, I think if the market does pull back a bit, the $2600 level will be worth watching. It’s an area that has offered a lot of support previously, as well as resistance. Furthermore, gold markets are driven to the futures markets, which of course have a lot of options trades. The options markets tend to focus on these big round figure such as the $2600 level, so I think it all ties together quite nicely. For that matter, the $2800 level makes sense as well due to the same factors, and the fact that on the daily chart you can see a bullish flag, which has a “measured move” to that level.
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Interest rates around the world continue to be a bit of a mixed bag, and it is worth noting that central banks around the world continue to cut them. That being said, the bond market is revolting a bit against the Federal Reserve in the United States, so that of course is a little bit of an outlier, but when you look at other banks around the world, when they cut rates, it seems like the bond markets are willing to listen.
At this point in time, I think that the month of November is going to be a lot of “buy on the dips”, as long as we can stay above the crucial $2600 level. If we can break above the $2800 level, then I think we go looking to the $3000 level. Gold is obviously very bullish, and there’s literally no reason whatsoever to think that it’s a market that you should be shorting anytime soon.
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