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USD/JPY Forecast: Japanese Yen Hits Three-Month Low

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
  • The Japanese yen fell below 153 yen against the US dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly three months.
  • This decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields, fueled by strong economic data and concerns over the US deficit.
  • In Japan, traders are looking ahead to the general election this week, with polls indicating that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose its majority with its coalition partner Komeito.
  • Consequently, this could raise market concerns about political instability and increase uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook.
  • Meanwhile, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Okuda declined to comment on currency movements, in contrast to senior currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura, who reaffirmed last week that they are closely monitoring foreign exchange movements, and that excessive volatility is undesirable.

USD/JPY Forecast Today - 24/10: Yen Hits Low (Chart)

According to stock trading platforms, Japanese stocks fall amid market caution. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.8% to 38,105 while the broader TOPIX lost 0.55% to 2,637 on Wednesday, reversing gains earlier in the session as caution gripped sentiment ahead of Japan's general election this week.

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Opinion polls have suggested the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose its majority with its coalition partner Komeito, raising concerns about political instability. Higher global bond yields also continued to weigh on stock markets, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topping 4.2% amid strong economic data and concerns about the U.S. deficit.

In corporate news, shares in Tokyo Metro surged 45% in their debut on Wednesday after raising 348.6 billion yen in its initial public offering, Japan's biggest in six years. Technology stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Disco Corp (-4.2%), Advantest (-1.1%) and Tokyo Electron (-1%).

In the US stock market, Dow Jones drops more than 600 points, Nasdaq falls 2%. According to trading, the three major US indexes closed sharply lower on Wednesday, as rising Treasury yields and concerns about a US interest rate cut weighed on investors as they digested another round of earnings. According to performance, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow fell 4.9 points, its third straight losing session and its worst day in a month. 

The 10-year Treasury yield was higher, reaching 4.25%, drivenby strong economic data and Fed officials sounding cautious about the pace of future US interest rate cuts. Tech giants Nvidia (-2.8%), Apple (-2.1%) and Qualcomm (-3.8%) also weighed. Tesla (-2%) fell ahead of its earnings after the closing bell, as investors closely watched for signs of stabilizing sales and progress in AI transformation.

In addition, Boeing (-1.8%) reported a big quarterly loss, and McDonald’s (-5.1%) faced pressure after its burgers were linked to an E. coli outbreak. In contrast, AT&T jumped 4.7% after its subscriber count rose more than expected.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the general trend of the USD/JPY pair is still bullish, and its recent gains were enough to push the technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. Moreover, with the continued strength of the US dollar and the calming expectations regarding the future tightening of the Japanese central bank's policy, the bulls may continue to control the trend and currently the closest resistance levels are 153.00, 153.85 and 154.60 respectively. 

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Mahmoud Abdallah
About Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
 

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