The USD/INR is trading above the 84.0000 level in a rather sustained manner since the 11th of October as a weaker Indian Rupee has seemingly been agreed upon by the Reserve Bank of India.
- The USD/INR is within the upper realms of its apex highs.
- The current price of the USD/INR per a trading screen is around 84.0700 depending on the wide bids and asks being displayed. The 84.0000 juncture in the USD/INR was allowed to be penetrated on the 11th of October and momentarily spiked to 84.1000 on that day.
- The word ‘allow’ is important for day traders to acknowledge and understand, because the Indian Rupee’s value is largely controlled by the Reserve Bank of India.
Top Forex Brokers
While there may be some narrative that the USD/INR has correlated to the stronger USD seen across the global Forex market, this is not the main impetus in the USD/INR. The currency pair has been within a long-term bullish trend and the weakness being seen in the Indian Rupee is largely a by-product of policy via the government of India.
USD/INR 84.0000 Level is a New Normal
Having now sustained trading above the 84.0000 for almost two weeks, psychologically it seems as if the Reserve Bank of India has decided to let this level become the ‘new normal’ for the USD/INR. The currency pair flirted with the 84.0000 level from the first week in August until it finally powered above the level on the 11th of October.
Yes, there have been reversals downwards and traders who are able to pursue the USD/INR have certainly seen price velocity on occasion to lower depths, but the magnetic like effect of the 84.0000 ratio has been strong for over two months, and that needs to be given attention.
Intriguingly support has incrementally become higher the past week, since the 18th of October the USD/INR has seen the 84.0000 level become rather durable. During the first week of trading above the 84.000 juncture support could be seen around the 83.9800 vicinity. In early trading today it should be pointed out the USD/INR has been lingering near highs and this may create a suspicion higher values in the currency pair may be seen.
Near-Term and Mid-Term USD/INR Thoughts
India is participating in the BRICS Summit 2024 today, but this should not have any impact on the USD/INR exchange pair outwardly the next few days. Over the mid-term there may be some type of correlation, but being able to examine the exact metrics of movements being created by a weaker Indian Rupee due to agreements among trading partners in BRICS will be nearly impossible to find unless publicly acknowledged by India.
- Important U.S data will be released next week including GDP and jobs numbers, but the USD/INR remains under the tight control of the Reserve Bank of India.
- For the moment and likely into the coming months, it seems the USD/INR may continue to incrementally test higher realms – slowly, but technically evident because it has been mandated by the Indian government.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 84.0770
Current Support: 84.0210
High Target: 84.0850
Low Target: 84.0010
Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in India to check out.