- The USD/MXN has returned to its higher price range and the 20.00000 price is now within sight for financial institutions and day traders as nervous conditions shadow the currency pair.
- The USD/MXN was able to provide some traders the potential of a selloff a couple of weeks ago, but wagers on the currency pair being overbought may not look quiet as tempting this time.
- The USD/MXN is hovering again near high water marks and at the time of this writing is around 19.93540. Nervous trading conditions are likely developing based on the notion financial institutions may believe they know the outcome of the U.S election.
- Fast trading will remain in the USD/MXN in the near-term.
The U.S and Mexico are large trading partners and the behavioral sentiment of the USD plays a strong part in the USD/MXN, particularly around U.S presidential elections. The USD has gotten stronger across Forex, so the move higher in the currency pair is not acting on its own. And it should be noted the USD/MXN did touch the current values being traversed in late August and early September.
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This Time the Buying in the USD/MXN Might be Different
While the upwards momentum in the USD/MXN seen from late May until mid-September of this year was largely based on nervous behavioral sentiment being generated because of the Mexican election results. The upwards trend and ability to hover within sight of the 20.00000 in recent days might be a reflection of the thought Donald Trump will become U.S President again.
The outcome of the U.S election is certainly not guaranteed, but with only two weeks left before the vote, financial institutions might be bracing for the potential of changes in U.S rhetoric regarding economic policies between Mexico and the U.S, the coming days will be interesting. The Mexican Peso was one of the strongest global currencies for a couple of years against the USD. The reversal in fortunes since May of 2024 has been easy to see. The 20.00000 is an important psychological level for the USD/MXN. A high of 20.03200 was challenged this past Thursday.
Overbought Conditions and Short-Term Trading
While the USD/MXN does appear to be in overbought territory, nervousness in financial institutions is likely not going to disappear in the next two weeks. Trading conditions will remain choppy and if trading does break above the 20.00000 and become sustained this could be a bullish signal. However, the short and near-term are probably going to remain speculative challenging and traders should be quite careful.
There is a lack of significant U.S data coming this week, traders will be able to focus on technical charts driven by cautious and perhaps nervous perspectives.
Risk management should be used and traders should be ready for sudden velocity.
However, traders should not expect large downturns in the USD/MXN exchange rate over the near-term.
Choppy conditions are likely to persist.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.94900
Current Support: 19.91010
High Target: 19.98500
Low Target: 19.85900
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