Upon opening today the USD/MXN is trading above the 20.00000 level and is within sight of highs touched in the middle of last week.
- The USD/MXN is near the 20.04400 ratio as of this writing with fast price fluctuations being demonstrated.
- The ability of the USD/MXN to climb over the important 20.00000 this morning needs to be monitored.
- Global forex trading has seen a vast wave of nervous conditions hit currency pairs teamed against the USD since the start of October, but the Mexican Peso is also suffering from concerns regarding the ruling Morena political party and its ability to be fiscally sound.
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However, it is likely that the USD/MXN is now within what may be considered overbought territory because of the nervous conditions within financial institutions as they contemplate coming U.S economic data in the next handful of days, the U.S election is next week on the 5th, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decision which will be announced on the 7th of November.
Combination of Impetus Causing Higher Move in USD/MXN
The USD/MXN is correlating to global Forex price action as USD centric strength is proving durable. However the ability of the USD/MXN to go over the 20.00000 and sustain prices above this morning needs to be kept an eye on. If the currency pair begins to challenge last Wednesday’s highs this could be a signal the 20.10000 may be a target by some programed trading.
This coming week the GDP numbers, inflation statistics, and jobs data will be published. All of these results will affect the USD/MXN and the U.S Fed’s interest rate decision next week. While some believe the Fed will cut it interest rate by 0.25, even if they do financial institutions will want to know what the Fed’s outlook is over the mid-term. The economic data which will start this Wednesday will cause a reaction and volatility should be expected by speculators.
Fast Conditions and Dangerous USD/MXN Wagers
Traders’ intent on pursuing the USD/MXN exchange pair in the short-term need to be careful. Global Forex has produced volatility the past few weeks and the USD/MXN has certainly seen fast conditions. But what has been seen the past few weeks may only be a prelude to the price action that is going to develop in the near-term.
- Risk management will be essential.
- Day traders need to understand financial institutions have the potential to move Forex, including the Mexican Peso, quickly and the volatility may be too much for speculators who do not have deep pockets.
- While the USD/MXN may look overbought, the development of a lower trend that builds momentum may not be forthcoming in the short-term.
- Traders should likely like for quick hitting positions, and if the USD/MXN continues to linger above the 20.00000 level it may mean another test higher is coming.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.05900
Current Support: 20.01600
High Target: 20.09500
Low Target: 19.99980
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