- The US dollar has tested the 20 Mexican peso level multiple times and at this point in time, it looks like we are doing everything we can to break above it.
- For what it is worth, the moving average convergence divergence indicator shows a little bit of divergence, but really at this point, I think it's obvious that traders are focusing on the greenback for safety over the Mexican peso, which is more of a risk on currency.
- Further, the market is a little bit different in this currency pair due to the fact that Mexico depends so much on the United States for economic growth.
Mexico Is the Number one Exporter to the US
Remember Mexico is the number one exporter to the United States now. With that being the case, as the US goes, so goes Mexico. If the US economy is in fact slowing down, that is going to put serious problems on the Mexican economy. Also, we have a US election next week, which could have a massive influence on what happens with border policy. And there is a certain and significant amount of remittances that come back from Mexican migrants in the United States back to Mexico, which is directly affecting the Forex markets.
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All of that being said, on top of this, we have had interest rates in America spike recently, so the swap that you are losing by holding this trade to the long side is much less than it typically would be. So, all of these come together for a stronger US dollar.
Quite frankly, even if we do pull back from here, I believe it's still a buy on the pullback type of market at least until we break down below the 19 Mexican pesos level and even then, I'd have to look at the fundamentals to even remotely imagine shorting.
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