Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.90.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has maintained its stability at the same levels it closed at last week. Meanwhile, the pair continued to trade around levels between 34.20 and 34.30 for most of the current month. This is supported by clear support from the Turkish monetary and fiscal authorities to maintain the stability of the lira without it declining, so as not to have negative effects on commodity prices, which could increase inflation rates.
Meanwhile, the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Fatih Karahan, reassured investors in his meetings in the US capital, Washington, regarding the policy of raising the minimum wage expected next year. Karahan confirmed that this expected increase will be within the considerations of the bank's monetary policy, noting that a 25% wage increase is consistent with next year's inflation expectations. The wage determination committee is expected to conclude its work in December, and the new minimum wage will be announced. The statements of the Central Bank Governor came after statements by the head of the International Monetary Fund mission, on the need to avoid wage increases that fuel inflation, pointing to the importance of developing targeted support programs for low-income groups to enhance economic stability.
In the same context, the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Simsek, explained that wage determination is done through negotiations between unions, employers, and the government, emphasizing the importance of maintaining competitiveness and avoiding commenting on specific numbers. Furthermore, the head of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry pointed to the need to review tax brackets to ease the burden on employees.
The Turkish Minister of Labor had previously announced the start of wage discussions in December, with the aim of reaching a balanced formula that supports workers' rights without harming the economy. On the other hand, the head of the Republican People's Party rejected any increase that would make the minimum wage less than 30,000 lira, as large increases support the restoration of the purchasing power of workers.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has stabilized at the same levels it traded around during the past week. Recently, the pair has been trading above the ascending trendline on the daily timeframe. Also, the overall upward trend continues as the pair moves within an ascending price channel on a larger time frame, reflecting the overall upward trend of the pair. Moreover, the price is trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, respectively. The forecast for the Turkish lira price includes the pair rising with the price stabilizing within the price channel, where every decline in the dollar price represents an opportunity to buy again.
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