Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.99.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The Turkish lira opened the week's trading at the same levels as the previous week's close, around 34.20 lira per dollar. Over the past weekend, the IMF issued a report warning Turkish policymakers about the risks that could arise from deviating from the current monetary policy pursued by the central bank. The statement urged the Turkish government to make greater and more focused efforts to combat inflation in order to reduce the budget deficit. The statement also called for adherence to the tight monetary policy and no change unless inflation figures change.
Regarding the minimum wage, the fund recommended linking wage increases to future inflation expectations rather than tying them to past inflation figures, as this step would contribute to reducing inflation. In this regard, forecasts by global financial institutions have indicated a possible increase in the minimum wage by more than a quarter over the coming year. The Turkish government has raised the minimum wage three times since 2023, twice last year and once this year.
The fund also praised the shift in monetary policy witnessed by Turkey since the middle of last year, a policy that has contributed significantly to reducing inflation rates after raising interest rates from 8.5% to 50%. Inflation figures have shown a decline over the past months, while the pace of these declines has slowed in the past month, after inflation reached 49.4%. The fund said that tightening monetary policy has helped restore confidence, leading to an improvement in investor confidence in lira-denominated assets.
The statement concluded by recommending that the Turkish government gradually stop measures related to capital flows, in line with the decline in foreign exchange liquidity risks and the slowdown in inflation.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair fluctuated within the price channel it has been trading within for several weeks. The lira has experienced slight declines. The pair traded at 34.26 lira this morning, the same average that the pair has recorded since the beginning of the month. Despite the current fluctuation, the overall upward trend is still dominating the pair's movements, with the price moving above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour chart, which represents strong support levels. Also, the price is moving above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Forecasts for the Turkish lira price include a rise in the pair as the price stabilizes within the price channel, where every decline in the dollar price represents an opportunity to buy again.
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