Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.90.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair increased before the start of European trading this Monday morning, as the Lira lost some of its slight gains recorded at the opening of the markets this morning. Furthermore, the relative volatility that pushed the Lira out of the narrow trading range it has settled within for most of this month's trading, the pair returned to trading at the same levels again.
It is worth noting that the Central Bank of Turkey supports a relatively stable exchange rate for the Lira against the dollar, as the Turkish currency has not witnessed any significant changes over the past months, despite data affecting the monetary policy path in Turkey or the United States over the same period. The Central Bank's efforts come amid its desire to control inflation, as a decline in the value of the Lira opens the door to price increases and rising inflation.
Last Thursday, the Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 50% for the seventh consecutive meeting. Despite the decline in inflation over the past months, September's data was disappointing.
In other data, the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed in data released last week that real estate sales in the country increased in September to reach their highest levels since 2022. Sales increased by 37.3% compared to September of the previous year, reaching 140,919 units. Also, Housing sales during the first nine months of the year recorded an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year.
According to the data, Istanbul topped the sales with 21,314 units, while Ankara ranked second, and Izmir ranked third. Mortgaged home sales increased by 87.4%, while used home sales increased by 33.1%. On the other hand, sales of homes to foreigners decreased by 31%, with Russians topping the list of buyers.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, trading in the USD/TRY pair increased as the pair rebounded from the upward trendline on the daily timeframe shown by the chart. Meanwhile, the pair maintained its movements within an upward price channel on a larger timeframe. Furthermore, the pair is supported by its movement above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour timeframe, which represents an additional support level alongside the upward trendline. Also, the Turkish Lira price forecast includes the pair rising with the price stabilizing within the price channel, as every decline in the dollar price represents an opportunity to buy back.
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