- The USD/ZAR is near the 17.42200 ratio as of this writing.
- Interestingly, the USD/ZAR was around the same level this time last week early on Monday.
- The USD/ZAR did climb to a high of nearly 17.67700 on Wednesday, but after the near-term apex was achieved started to incrementally selloff and by Friday saw a steady amount of trading near the 17.48000 mark, until U.S PPI inflation data was released.
The USD/ZAR has seen a healthy correlation to USD centric behavioral sentiment which has been seen across Forex. In late September when the US/ZAR was near the 17.04500 vicinity, the currency pair was mirroring strength being seen in other major currencies against the USD. Day traders of the USD/ZAR may have to get readjusted to the acceptance the South African Rand is largely being affected by results being stirred by consideration of USD centric price action, as opposed to also worrying everyday about mismanagement rumors within the South African government.
Coalition Transparency Helping Financial Institutions in South Africa
There is no doubt that difficult economic challenges continue to face South Africa and there have been news articles in the domestic media about concerns about fiscal problems regarding cities infrastructure and Eskom spending. However, there has also been an increased amount of transparency attained in the 100 days since the new coalition government has taken the helm of leadership in South Africa.
While the USD/ZAR certainly has seen a significant bearish trend attained the past few months, the sudden reversal higher in the currency pair may have scared some observers. However, the upswing in the USD/ZAR since the end of September is USD centric. Day traders can now focus on technical ranges and behavioral sentiment being generated because of U.S economic data like last Friday’s inflation numbers which came in slightly weaker than expected and likely caused a slight selloff of the USD/ZAR.
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Near-Term Caution and USD/ZAR Sentiment
The USD/ZAR has seen some choppy trading in the past week, but this is a good sign for speculators. The ability early last week to fall to a low of nearly 17.31250 may serve as an enticement for traders who believe the USD/ZAR can go lower. The broad Forex market last week saw similar results within other major currency pairs.
- The USD/ZAR trading early this morning to slightly lower levels may signal some financial institutions believe the currency pair should be moving downwards.
- The U.S will be relatively light with economic data this week. U.S Retail Sales and Housing data will be seen later this week.
- But most traders are now focusing on the approaching U.S election and Federal Reserve meeting which will follow in the first week of November.
- Short-term traders may be able to take advantage of nearby technical support levels which may be attractive as targets for sellers in the USD/ZAR.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 17.43800
Current Support: 17.42175
High Target: 17.48350
Low Target: 17.39700
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