AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has been somewhat lackluster during the week, but at this point in time, the market also looks as if it is trying to bounce a bit. Ultimately, this is a situation that looks a little bit confused, but it is worth noting that perhaps we are in the midst of forming some type of base. If the market were to break above the 0.6850 level, and perhaps even more importantly, the 0.6925 level, then buyers will certainly continue to jump in and push this market to the upside.
EUR/USD
The euro has exhibited significant volatility throughout the week, hovering around the critical 1.09 level. This price point has historically served as both support and resistance, indicating that traders may be attempting to establish a bottom, particularly following last week’s fluctuations. While the market has the potential for a more pronounced movement, we currently find ourselves in the midst of a broader consolidation phase that has persisted over the past couple of years.
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NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar fell significantly during the course of the trading week, accelerating to the downside as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis point. That being said, it looks like the market is trying to do everything it can to support the 0.60 level, but if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading week, then the market is likely to go looking to the 0.5850 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the previous week, the market could go looking to the 0.6350 level over time.
USD/CHF
The US dollar has been all over the place during the course of the trading week against the Swiss franc as we try to sort out where we are going to go next. Ultimately, the 0.86 level is an area that has been significant resistance over the last several days, and I think if we break above there, the market is likely to go looking to the 0.8750 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, we could fall toward the 0.84 level underneath, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and also a level that has been crucial with its support.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has skyrocketed against the Canadian dollar during the trading week, as it looks like we are now going to threaten a move back to the 1.39 level above. That’s an area that has been a major resistance barrier in the past, so I think you need to pay close attention to that area. If we were to break above there, then we could see the USD/CAD currency pair go reaching to the 1.40 level, an area that obviously would attract a lot of attention. In the meantime, I think short-term pullbacks will be buying opportunities.
WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market has been all over the place during the week, as we are trying to sort out where we are going next. We are essentially in the middle of the larger consolidation area that we have been in over the last couple of years, so therefore I think we are in the midst of a major inflection point, something that we need to pay close attention to. Essentially, I’m very neutral on the market at the moment, because it is essentially a “coin flip” going forward. Simply put, I would be trading in the direction we break from this candlestick. If we break the top of it, then it’s bullish, if we break the bottom of it, then it’s bearish.
CAD/JPY
The Canadian dollar has pulled back against the Japanese yen during the course of the trading week as it looks like the 110 year level will continue to be a bit of a barrier. It’s also worth noting that the 50 Week EMA is sitting around the same level as well, so it all ties together for not only “market memory” based on previous action, but also psychology, and technical indicators. For what it is worth, there is still plenty of support underneath and I do believe that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck with loose monetary policy at this juncture. I’d be a buyer of dips.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 initially pulled back just a bit during the course of the trading week, only to turn around and find buyers. At this point in time, it looks like we continue to see a lot of “buy on the dip behavior” going forward, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we break out to a fresh, new high. All things being equal, it’s almost impossible to short this index.
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