- The Aussie dollar rallied in the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see consolidation between the 99.50 yen level below and the 101.50 yen level above.
- In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked about risk appetite, but it's worth noting that overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia chose to keep its interest rates level.
- So with that, I think there was a little bit of a relief rally in the Australian dollar.
Now, the question is, will risk appetite benefit the Aussie or will people run to the Japanese yen? A move above the 101.50 yen level, I believe, unless it's a huge move to the upside, perhaps all the way back to the 109 yen level for some time. This is a market that will continue to be noisy, but at this point in time – I suppose that I favor the upside in general.
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A Break Down Coming?
If we were to turn around and break down below the 99.50 yen level, then it's possible that we could go down to the 98.50 yen level, maybe even lower. In general, the interest rate differential between the two countries continues to favor Australia and probably will for the foreseeable future. So, I do think you have a situation where SWAP continues to favor the Aussie. So therefore, carry traders will continue to favor the upside. I have no interest in shorting this pair, at least not at the moment, but we'll have to wait and see. With the US elections and the inability of Americans to have an election in a 24 hour period, it's possible that we see a lot of volatility over the next couple of days. Because of this, you need to be cautious about position sizing, as this could be very disruptive over the next few sessions. On its face, this is a market that is looking to determine where it wants to go overall.
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