AUD/USD Forecast: Risk Aversion Weighs on Aussie

• The Australian dollar initially did try to rally during the trading session on Thursday but as you can see, we've seen some problems with momentum, and we've turned around to form a little bit of an inverted hammer.
• The question now is will the 0.65 level be held?
• Right now, that is most certainly a question that I think holds a lot of water.

Over the last couple of days, I have suggested that fading rallies will more likely than not be the way going forward with the Australian dollar, specifically against the US dollar, and that does seem to be panning out. If we drop from here, the 0.6450 level could be a potential target. If we break down below there, then the 0.64 level comes into the picture.

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On a rally at this point, assuming that we can get above the 0.6550 level, then we could go look into the 0.66 level, which I think it's going to be very difficult to break above. All things being equal, this is about a lack of desire to take a lot of risk right now, I think, with the escalation of war in Ukraine causing major issues.

Noise Seems to be the Norm

The market has been very noisy for some time and that typically doesn't favor these risk on currencies such as the Australian dollar. So, with all of that being said, I think you've got a situation where market participants continue to look at this as somewhat of a choppy and negative market. If we were to break down from here and maybe even drop below 0.64, that could be disastrous for the Australian dollar, and more likely than not show the US dollar swallowing everything, which at this rate, isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. So, while this particular AUD/USD pair may not be setting up a major trade, it is a pair you need to watch. It is a major currency pair. For what it's worth, the Euro is starting to break down below the 1.05 level, which is a very pro US dollar signal. So, I think the downward pressure is still very much intact here.

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