- During my daily analysis of the AUD/USD pair, I notice that this market is likely to continue to drop, given enough time due to the reason that every time we rallied, it seems like sellers are willing to jump in and crush this pair.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, mainly due to the fact that the Australian dollar so highly levered to the commodity markets.
- Furthermore, the Australian economy is highly levered to Asia, which seems to be in a state of flux at the moment, especially China.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the AUD/USD currency pair is rather bleak, and I do think that given enough time we will continue to see rallies squashed, as the US dollar seems to be like a wrecking ball for everything. We are entering a very interesting time, as there are a lot of geopolitical concerns that could make the US dollar much more attractive than many other currencies anyway. We are on the precipice of an expanding war in Ukraine, and if that does in fact end up happening, assuming that we don’t all get blown up in some type of fireball, there will be people looking to find safety be a US Treasuries and United States-based assets.
Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that with a clean sweep by the Republicans in the United States, it’s likely that we will continue to see money flow into the United States as they are known to be more business friendly. In other words, you probably have a lot of foreign investment coming into America at the moment. By contrast, Australia has a lot of issues at the moment, not the least of which will be the fact that the commodity markets are softening. The only thing that really seems to be taken off is gold, and even that has struggled over the last week or so. In other words, I think you continue to feed rallies in this market, especially if we get anywhere near the 50 Day EMA.
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