My previous signal on 14th November `was not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6521, $0.6558, or $0.6580.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6481, $0.6435, or $0.6345.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast last Thursday that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking bearish due to the symmetrical bearish price channel.
This was a good call, as the price declined over that day.
The technical picture has changed and is starting to look more bullish as the price first consolidated and then began advancing, clearly breaking with the former bearish price channel indicated by the linear regression analysis within the price chart below.
Another potentially bullish factor is that this could be the start of a double bottom chart pattern, with the price rising strongly from the area of recent lows some months ago, before it fell again.
Drilling down, we see that the resistance level at $0.6521 looks very pivotal, as does the support below that at $0.6480.
I think if we see two consecutive higher hourly closes above $0.6521 without strong upper wicks, or if we get a solid bounce at $0.6480, these could be interesting speculative long trades. The edge would come here from the big reward to risk ratio more than the probability of a win.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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