My previous signal on 30th October was not triggered as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
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Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6615, $0.6663, or $0.6696.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6582, $0.6545, $0.6512, or $0.6465.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 30th October that the AUD/USD currency pair was in a bearish symmetrical price channel. The channel suggested that the downwards movement would persist, but I noted that we are approaching the big round number at $0.6500 and a cluster of support levels which might halt the decline, even if only temporarily.
This was a pretty good call, as we have seen a bottoming out over recent days with the low just above $0.6500. The price has slowly broken bullishly out of the bearish channel and is now clearly making a series of higher lows.
Bulls are close to again testing the resistance level at $0.6615, and this level looks likely to be pivotal today. However, this may be of limited use, as it is likely that prices generally will consolidate before we start to get results from the US general election later today in the competitive states, with Pennsylvania likely to be the first states to give us meaningful clues as to the eventual winner of the Presidency.
If Trump wins the Presidency, it is likely to be positive for the US Dollar, and if Republicans also win control of the Senate, it will be even more positive. The converse is also obviously the case. This is likely to be the major near-term driver for this currency pair.
A long scalp above $0.6615 once the price is established up there could be a good trade if Harris goes on to become an obvious or likely winner tonight.
Keep in mind that with the polls so exceedingly close between Trump and Harris, a disputed outcome is very probable, and this will lead to nothing but Forex volatility and a bearish US stock market over the short term.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of ISM Services PMI data at 3pm London time, followed later in the night by results from the US general election. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the AUD.
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