Bearish View
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6450.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6450.
The AUD/USD exchange rate suffered a harsh reversal on Wednesday morning as the market reflected on the incoming presidential results in the United States. The pair dived to 0.6553, erasing most of the gains made earlier this month. It has crashed by over 1.31% from its highest level this week.
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US Presidential Elections and Fed Decision
The AUD/USD pair crashed as investors focused on incoming presidential results in the US. At the time if writing, the results were too close to call, with Trump leading in most swing states. A Polymarket poll showed that he had a 80% chance of winning the election.
However, it was still too early to predict whether Trump would win since mail-in ballots in key states were not available yet. At the same time, Republicans made gains to take control of the Senate, with Jim Justice winning in West Virginia, Rick Scott winning in Florida, and Jim Banks winning in Indiana.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will be highly volatile on Wednesday as investors react to more incoming data. Chances are that it will drop sharply if Trump wins as the market moves to safe-haven assets.
The impact of the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for later on Wednesday will be relatively muted since it has already been priced in by market participants. Economists expect the bank to cut rates by 0.25% and hint to more cuts in the coming meetings because of the labor market. Data released last Friday showed that the economy added just 12,000 jobs last month.
The AUD/USD exchange rate also rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did as was widely expected. It left rates unchanged at 4.35% and maintained that it was still too early to cut rates, citing the elevated inflation.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The 4H chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate suffered a harsh reversal as traders reacted to the incoming data. It retreated from a high of 0.6645 to the important support level at 0.6550.
The pair also dropped below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and is nearing the key support point at 0.6537, its lowest point in October.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely be highly volatile as the election results come in. It will likely keep falling if Trump wins or bounce back to 0.6645 if Harris wins.
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