My previous BTC/USD signal on 4th November was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at the support levels which I had identified that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50% per trade.
- Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
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Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $81,756 or $80,741.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Idea
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $100,000.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast over a week ago that Bitcoin looking likely to rise in line with Trump and Congressional Republicans’ electoral fortunes, which wasn’t rocket science but was correct.
As the results became clear, we saw Bitcoin making a very strong bullish breakout to new record highs, rising by as much as 10% in a day. The price made a fresh record high above $90,000 yesterday but has since been making a bearish retracement. This retracement is relatively shallow and is nothing out of the ordinary, so there is no reason not to expect still higher record prices will be reached soon given the underlying bullish fundamental drivers – the more crypto-friendly environment that the new Republican governance will surely bring.
The technical question before us is whether Bitcoin will retrace further before rising again, or will it just turn strongly bullish again and blast ahead to $100,000? I see that huge round number as being a natural barrier, and there is a strong case to take profit on a long trade as soon as that number is reached, as I think a period of consolidation will probably be needed before Bitcoin could get established above $100,000.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the price has quite a way to fall before it will reach any natural support levels, with the nearest one being a little below $82,000. However, given the high level of volatility we have been seeing in Bitcoin over the past week, it could easily get there within just a few hours.
A thing to watch out for now is any news about the US government’s approach towards crypto or Bitcoin – that could move the price by several thousand dollars.
Looking at the price action, we may be seeing a bullish double bottom above $86,000.
- If you are already long of Bitcoin, it will probably be wise to continue to hold that until the price makes a much deeper retracement or hits $100,000.
- If you are not yet long of Bitcoin, it will probably be best to stand aside and wait for a retracement and bounce at my key support, or for another consolidation pattern followed by a bullish breakout, before entering a new long trade.
- A short at $100,000 could be a good idea for more advanced traders.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.
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