Bullish View
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 65,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
- Set a sell-stop at 67,000 and a take-profit at 65,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 70,000.
Bitcoin price retreated sharply as the recent bullish momentum faded as the highly consequential US election nears. The BTC/USD has retreated in the past six consecutive days, reaching its lowest swing since October 27.
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Bitcoin will be in the spotlight as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face off in today’s general election. The two candidates have expressed different views on cryptocurrencies. Harris has hinted that her policies will help users to safeguard their coins, a move that suggests more regulations.
Trump, on the other hand, has campaigned on the need to dismantle the regulatory state and to make the US the crypto capital of the world. He has also pledged to support Bitcoin mining companies and to push the US government to embrace Bitcoin reserves.
Some of Trump’s policies will also be bullish for Bitcoin. For example, he has pledged to implement more tax cuts, a move that will grow the national debt by $7.5 trillion in the next decade. Also, his pledge to implement trade wars would make Bitcoin act as a safe haven.
Therefore, a Trump victory will likely lead to higher crypto prices, albeit for a short period. Over time, these big events become just small dots in the bigger scale of things. For example, no one is talking the recent Bitcoin halving event or Ethereum’s merge, which moved it to a proof-of-stake network.
The BTC/USD pair will also react mildly to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Analysts expect the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25%, and point to more cuts in the next few meetings.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a steep sell-off and has retested the key support level at 67,500. It has retested the lower side of the ascending channel shown in red.
The pair has moved above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages. Also, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), a unique type of MACD, has remained above the zero line.
Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely bounce back and retest the next important resistance level at 70,000. A drop below the lower side of the ascending channel will point to more downside.
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