My previous BTC/USD signal on 31st October was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50% per trade.
- Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $68,563, $67,567, or $67,274.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $69,249, $71,529, or $72,095.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast last Thursday that Bitcoin was making a bullish base at the new higher support level at $72,095. This support level looked very likely to be the day’s pivotal point.
This was an excellent call, as this level held up as support before the price dramatically broke below it. It would have been a profitable breakdown to trade.
Bitcoin continued its bearish retracement after threatening to again test the record high made in March but seems to have found support now. One reason for that is something many analysts are missing: Bitcoin is contained within a subtle but valid ascending symmetrical bullish price channel. The lower supportive trend line is near the price suggesting that the current area of price action could be a good place to find a long trade entry. The second factor is that although there is a sense momentum has been moving towards Harris in the US Presidential Election (voting finishes tomorrow), President Trump remains in the lead in the betting markets and seems to probably have a small edge in swing state polls. Pollsters such as 538 are still giving Trump a 54% chance of victory, and Trump victory is seen as more positive for Bitcoin.
The more signs we see of Trump being likely to win, the more Bitcoin will probably advance, and vice versa regarding Kamala Harris’ prospects. Republicans are also likely to gain control of the Senate, and this will also be likely to boost Bitcoin if it happens.
If the price gets established below $67,274 later that would be a very bearish sign and will probably indicate a sharper fall would quickly happen.
Longer-term trend traders might want to wait for Bitcoin to close in New York at a new record high price before entering a long trade. I think that if Republicans win the Presidency and the Senate, we will quickly see Bitcoin rise to new record highs, possibly even targeting $100k per coin based upon the size of its rallies in the past. Yet of course, bullish targets are just speculation – its best to follow the price and trail a stop when you are trading trends, rather than picking targets.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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