- The Canadian dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday, as the Japanese yen saw a little bit of strength early, but we have since turned around to show signs of life.
- All things being equal, this is a market that has been very noisy for a while, and the fact that we had bounced from a couple of days ago at the 200 day EMA does suggest that we are going to continue to try to grind to the upside.
- The 112 yen level is the top of an overall consolidation range that we have been in, and if we can break above that level, then it's likely that we will go much higher.
On the other hand, if we turn around and drop from here, the 200 day EMA sits right around the 110 yen level, which of course is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. Keep in mind that this is also a play on oil a lot of the times due to the fact that Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, while the Japanese import 100 percent of theirs. With this being the case, it does tend to move right along with the WTI crude oil market, for example.
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Noisy Market Will Continue to Be So
That being said, the market is going to continue to be noisy, but I think given enough time, we will have to make a bigger decision. The Japanese yen itself is being hindered by the fact that the Bank of Japan can't do anything to tighten interest rates, and as long as that's going to be the case, there's really no reason to think that the yen will strengthen significantly, unless of course there's been some type of event.
I think this is a grind to the 112 yen level, and once we can break out of there, then we can really take off. For what it is worth, the US dollar climbed over a major hurdle against the yen today, so we may see the yen fall apart everywhere.
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