- The Euro has rallied a bit against the New Zealand dollar during the early hours on Friday, and it looks like we are going to try to make a move to the 1.8050 level, an area that's been important more than once.
- This area has caused a bit of resistance, but if we can get above there, I think it's likely that the market could go looking to the 1.8250 level.
Short-term pullbacks I do think end up being buying opportunities with the 200-day EMA underneath and support right along with the 1.7850 level. The 1.7850 level for me is a floor in this market and I do think that breaking down below there would be a big deal, but right now it doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon.
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With all of this being said, I think you've got a situation where we are seeing a little bit more risk off and it should be thought of as the euro being the saver of the two currencies. It's not really a risk off currency per se but in comparison to the commodity markets that's what we've got going on.
I Believe We Go Higher Eventually
All this being said EUR/NZD is a market that I think eventually does break higher, but I also recognize that this pair can be very noisy and very difficult. That being said, I do like the idea of buying the breakout or perhaps even buying the dip if we pull back from here. If we were to break down below the 1.7850 level, that's probably a huge risk on the move. And I don't know if this would be the market I'd be trading, but I might be buying like the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar because it's got much further to run, for example. But we'll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
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