- The stronger US dollar policy is bringing more losses to the EUR/USD currency pair, which has reached the support level of 1.0595, the lowest for the currency pair in the forex market during 2024.
- The gains of the US dollar are approaching the levels of November 2022, driven by expectations of imposing higher customs tariffs under the Donald Trump administration.
- Accordingly, these customs tariffs are expected to lead to raising prices, which limits the ability of the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates.
Why has the euro been negatively affected since Trump's victory in the US election?
The financial markets in general and the eurozone in particular have a bad history under Trump's leadership. Therefore, a new victory for Trump in the US presidential election brings back memories of imposing comprehensive tariffs on imports to strengthen the US manufacturing base, and according to economists, the European Union is particularly vulnerable, as the United States is the European Union's largest export market. The tariffs of the incoming Trump administration may focus on goods such as cars and steel. This coincides with the economic and political slowdown of the German economy, the largest in the eurozone, which weakens investor appetite for the single European currency - the euro - in the forex trading market.
Furthermore, and according to the results of economic data, the ZEW survey - a key measure of investor sentiment in Germany and the eurozone - showed a sharp decline in sentiment in November with the possibility of imposing tariffs.
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Will the euro decline further?
If Trump activates the "America First" trade policy, which poses a particular problem for the eurozone's economic outlook, the EUR/USD could remain under downward pressure and focus may shift away from reaching oversold levels. Markets and investors will continue to monitor the plans of the new US administration and their impact on global economic growth. consequently, on the policies of central banks worldwide over the next four years.
EUR/USD Technical analysis and signals:
The EUR/USD price breaking the support level of 1.0600 gives Forex traders the idea of whether to buy the Euro after that or wait. According to the performance on the daily chart, the psychological resistance of 1.1000 will remain the most important for the Euro/USD pair to change its direction upwards. Technically, the Euro/USD will remain under downward pressure until the US inflation figures are announced and the vision of the new US administration becomes clear.
- Expected Euro/USD buying levels: 1.0575, 1.0480 and 1.0390 respectively.
- Expected Euro/USD selling levels: 1.0720, 1.0800 and 1.0865 respectively.
Finally, considering the need to exercise caution and place stop-loss and take-profit orders to ensure the preservation of recommendation levels and benefiting from profit without incurring losses that exceed the trading account's capabilities.
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