- With Trump securing the U.S. presidential win and Pennsylvania confirming his victory, forex market volatility remains heightened.
- The EUR/USD pair is rebounding higher, reaching the 1.0936 resistance level, marking its highest point in over three weeks as markets adjust to the election outcome and anticipated policy impacts.
- Global financial markets now pivot their focus to Trump's economic policies and their potential implications for the U.S. dollar.
In general, the forex markets are adopting a relatively simple rule regarding the vote, which sees the US dollar favoured on signs of a Trump victory. The dollar’s advance will be exacerbated by signs that the Republicans are on their way to claiming control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This would bolster Trump’s grand agenda of tax cuts and tariffs. The losers in this “Trump trade” are the Chinese Yuan, Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. At the same time, forex traders are warning that if the initial results indicate that Harris performs better than expected, there is likely to be a panic unwinding of long US dollar positions (tariff deals such as the US dollar against the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso and the Korean won).”
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On another note, according to stock trading platforms, European stocks rose. According to trading, European stock indices closed slightly higher on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 50 index rising 0.5% and the broader Stoxx 600 index rising 0.1% as global markets await the outcome of the US presidential election. Also, Industrial stocks rose 1.2%, while the auto sector fell 1.87%. In this regard, Hugo Boss shares fell 4.5% despite achieving better-than-expected operating profits in the third quarter, due to concerns about a decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Also, Schroders shares fell 13.4% after the last trading update. Investors are closely monitoring which party will control Congress, as a Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to major shifts in spending and tax policies.
EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish, with key support levels at 1.0860 and 1.0800 highlighting bearish control. As previously mentioned, stability above the 1.1000 resistance will be a key target for bulls aiming for an upward move in the pair. Considering that the Euro/Dollar price will move amid strong fluctuations until the final result of the US elections is announced, which will determine the fate of the financial markets and the global economy for the next four years.
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