Potential signal:
- While I am not bullish of this pair, I can recognize when things change.
- If we were to break above the 1.0620 level, then I think you could see this pair go looking to the 1.0740 level.
- The stop loss would have to be the 1.05 level.
- While I don’t expect this to kickoff, it is somewhat up an obvious set up.
During my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, we have broken below the 1.05 level, and this has made me stand up and pay attention. Quite frankly, it looks like the US dollar is starting to strengthen against most things, and if that is going to end up being the case, then the euro will be any different. Quite frankly, there are far too many reasons to think that the European Union is going to have issues in comparison to the United States, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where the euro will continue to be in trouble.
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A Multitude of Problems
Germany is a basket case at this point, as the government is collapsing. We also have the specter of a larger war in Ukraine, as escalation seems to be the only route that the Americans and the Russians know at this point, with the Russians launching ICBMs at Ukraine in reaction to the Ukrainians firing long-range missiles deep into Russia that were provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Making things even more interesting, Joe Biden has approved landmines for sale to the Ukrainians.
Another issue that will show itself in this currency pair is the fact that interest rates in the United States continue to climb, while nobody really wants to put a lot of money into Europe at the moment. Stronger interest rates of course attract people to the US dollar, and then of course the fact that not only do you want to put money where works better for you, but a lot of people are also putting money into the bond market into the United States and simply parking their due to safety. In other words, this is a market that is going to be very hesitant to get bullish anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that breaking below the 1.04 level would signify that the US dollar is about to swallow everything, probably well beyond the currency market. Because of this, you need to pay attention to this pair quite closely.
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