Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0665.
- Add a take-profit at 1.0820.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0850.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0665.
The EUR/USD exchange rate suffered a steep reversal as American stocks and Treasury yields surged. The pair plunged to 1.0684, its lowest level since June 27, erasing some of the gains made earlier this week. It has fallen by 4.33% from its highest level in September of this year.
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Donald Trump and Fed Cuts
The EUR/USD pair retreated sharply as the US dollar index staged a strong comeback after Donald Trump won the election by a bigger margin than expected. He won the Electoral College and the popular vote, the first time a Republican has done that in over two decades.
This victory means more changes to the US economy in the coming months. A key change will be in trade policy, where Trump has promised huge tariffs on imported goods. Most of these tariffs will be on Chinese goods, which he has pledged to increase to 60%.
Trump has also questioned the Federal Reserve’s independence and pledged to maintain tax cuts, which will lead to more budget deficits over time.
The EUR/USD pair retreated as American equities bounced back. The Dow Jones index jumped by over 1,400 points, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones soared by over 3%. Similarly, bond yields jumped, with the ten-year and 30-year rising to 4.41% and 4.6%, respectively.
The next important EUR/USD news will come out on Thursday when the Federal Reserve concludes its meeting and makes its decision. Economists expect the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25% and point towards more cuts.
The other data to watch will be the US initial jobless claims numbers and the German industrial production. These reports will likely not have a big impact on the pair as the focus remains on the Fed and the US election.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend in the overnight session, falling to a low of 1.0684, its lowest point since June. It flipped the important support level at 1.0763 into a resistance point.
The pair has also dropped below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which could form a bearish crossover pattern. Also, the Relative Strength Index has moved downwards.
Therefore, the pair may continue falling in the near term before bouncing back. This price action could see it drop to 1.0665, its lowest level on June 19.
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