Potential signal:
I’m waiting to see how this plays out. At the end of the day on Thursday, if we are above the 50 Day EMA, I would be a buyer and start aiming toward the 1.3350 level, with a stop loss at the 1.2950 level. On the other hand, if we get a daily close below the 200 Day EMA, then I think at that point in time I’ll be aiming for 1.2680, with a stop loss at 1.2933 above.
- During my daily analysis of the GBP/USD pair, the first thing I notice is that we got absolutely hammered overnight, as the US elections brought in a wave of Republican victories, including Donald Trump winning the White House again.
- This is only the 2nd time in US history that we have seen a president win a 2nd term when it was a consecutive, with only Grover Cleveland accomplishing the same fee.
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Furthermore, we also have seen the Republicans take the Senate, and it looks like they will retain the House of Representatives. With this being the case, this will have a major influence on what happens with the business environment in the United States, because quite frankly this is a situation where traders will have to look at this through the prism of whether or not the US economy starts to strengthen quite drastically. Quite frankly, I have the sneaking suspicion that’s exactly what’s about to happen.
Both Central Banks in Focus
Both of these central banks are in focus on Thursday, with the Bank of England going first. While the Bank of England is expected to cut 25 basis points, you can say the same thing about the Federal Reserve. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked about the GBP/USD exchange rate, and I think you will get quite a bit more clarity after the Thursday session is over.
At this point, I think it’s a fairly obvious set up just waiting to happen, as the 2 moving averages, the 50 Day EMA above, and the 200 Day EMA underneath, could offer a significant move in one direction or the other. Quite frankly, if we can break out of this range, I think that the British pound is about to make a pretty big move.
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