- At the beginning of this week, the GBP/USD exchange rate is facing pressure, and we will be monitoring the key support levels that will be tested in the coming days.
- Its losses extended to the 1.2835 support level, the lowest for the currency pair in three months.
- According to Forex market trading, the US dollar’s gains have increased since Donald Trump won convincingly in the US presidential elections and the Republican Party seized the Senate majority.
The House of Representatives will certainly remain in Republican hands, giving Trump a strong hand in shaping his economic agenda, which is an overwhelmingly bullish agenda for the US dollar. According to analysts, “The US dollar’s bullish case remains convincing, with the US economy clearly outperforming everyone, and with the risks surrounding the FOMC’s forecasts turning somewhat two-sided by 2025, amid Trump’s inflationary fiscal agenda, and the inflationary risks posed by the imposition of tariffs.”
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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
Recently, the pound has held up better than most major currencies against the US dollar. Technically, the GBP/USD pair remains range bound at 1.30 on the top and 1.2834 on the bottom. Moreover, this week could see price action confined to this area, but with the lower end tested before any bounce to 1.30 occurs. With this in mind, we are watching the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-September rally. This retracement is at around 1.2868, which coincides with the lower end of the aforementioned range. At the same time, the 200-day moving average is also rising into this support area, currently at 1.2800, and is likely to provide further support. Therefore, we see strong support levels ahead, which could ensure that the GBP/USD pair does not fall much further. However, any USD rally is likely to break this support confluence, and we could see a rapid decline towards the August lows at 1.2664.
Key Factors Affecting GBP/USD Performance in the Coming Days:
According to the economic calendar data, the main event in the USD calendar is the release of US inflation data, due on Wednesday. It is expected to read 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.6% on an annual basis. Any reading above that could see the USD gain momentum. However, there was a significant re-pricing away from the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve during October as investors prepared for an outperformance in the US economy, with the market now seeing a limited number of cuts coming in 2025.
Moreover, we believe that a significant rate cut would surprise the USD significantly. This is because a large part of the reduction in interest rate cut bets has already occurred, and it is difficult to see much appreciation in the value of the USD in response. Instead, the bigger reaction could follow a weaker-than-expected result, given that financial markets now have more room to reconstruct bets on a rate cut.
On the pound front, the main event this week comes on Tuesday when the UK releases its wage and employment data. These figures are usually a key component of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, and any sign of easing wage pressures could strengthen the case for a rate cut in December.
Markets are expecting average wages to fall to 4.7% in September, with the figure falling to 3.9% for earnings including bonuses. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.1%. The September data comes ahead of the UK budget, which looks set to be a job killer due to the high costs associated with hiring staff (the national insurance paid by employers was raised, but the threshold at which they start paying tax was cut sharply). Also, official data will not begin to cover the implications of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s decisions until early 2025. We think that the signal from more timely surveys, such as the November PMI, will be more important in this regard.
Will the Bank of England be in a position to cut interest rates if it believes the labour market is deteriorating?
Typically, the answer is yes.
But the Reeves Budget is also expected to push inflation well above 2.0% in the coming months, which will tie the Bank’s hands and keep interest rates high for longer. We will hear from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey midweek and again on Thursday, when he is due to address last week’s policy decision and the issues surrounding the impact of the Budget on policy. Obviously, his comments may introduce some short-term volatility.
Meanwhile, the week's trading concludes with part of the UK's third-quarter GDP data. Thus, this could provide some short-term price movements. However, we do not believe it will have a lasting impact on the pound sterling exchange rate. This is because the third quarter is becoming clear in the rearview mirror, especially given the changes in policy settings announced in the budget.
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