Bearish View
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a 1.2450.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2450.
The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized ahead of several important economic numbers from the UK. It was trading at 1.2676, a few points above last week’s low of 1.2596. It remains about 5.6% below its highest level this year.
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UK Inflation, PMI, and Retail Sales Data Ahead
The GBP/USD pair moved sideways ahead of key economic numbers from the UK. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish the October consumer and producer inflation numbers on Wednesday morning.
According to Investing, economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 1.7% in September to 2.2% in October, moving back above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0%.
Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to slow from 3.2% to 3.1%. The Retail Price Index (RPI) is expected to rise from 2.7% to 3.3%.
If these numbers are accurate, they will signal that the BoE will likely embrace a more cautious tone in the coming meetings.
The next key UK numbers will come out on Friday when the ONS will publish the latest retail sales data. Economists expect the numbers to reveal that the country’s sales slowed from 3.9% in September to 3.4% in October. S&P Global will also release the flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers on the same day.
The GBP/USD pair stabilized as Donald Trump continued to form his cabinet. He is still making his decision on who will become the Treasury Secretary and is said to be considering Howard Lutnick to become the Commerce Secretary.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a bearish trend, helped by the strong US dollar. On the daily chart, it has moved to oversold level of the Murrey Math Lines indicator. It has also moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bearish crossover pattern, while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved below the oversold level.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next point at 1.2450, the extreme oversold level. A move above the weak, stop & resistance level at 1.2817 will invalidate the bearish view.
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