Bearish View
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2730.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2900 and a take-profit at 1.3000.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2730.
The GBP/USD exchange rate continued plunging as the American presidential results streamed in and showed a strong performance by Donald Trump. It crashed to 1.2900, erasing some of the previous gains made this month.
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US Election, Fed, and BoE
The GBP/USD pair fell sharply as the results of America’s election continued coming in. Data by the New York Times showed that Trump was leading 198 compared to 112. Republicans also had 47 seats in the Senate compared to Democrats ’36.
However, these results were still too close to call and a lot could change as swing state numbers come in. According to Polymarket, Trump had a 88% chance of winning the electoral college and the popular vote.
The prediction platform also hinted that Republicans would sweep in the down-ballot. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will be fairly volatile on Wednesday as these results come in.
With the results streaming in on Wednesday, there are chances that the Federal Reserve decision will not have a big impact. Besides, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the second consecutive meeting. In this, it will cut rates by 0.25%, a smaller one than the jumbo cut it executed in the last meeting.
The other key GBP/USD news to watch will be the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision scheduled on Thursday. After pausing in the last meeting, the bank will likely decide to cut rates by 0.25% in this meeting.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate continued falling as the odds of a Trump win rose. The pair has moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
It has moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Also, the MACD indicator has moved below the zero line. The pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is lower, with the next point to watch being the 50% retracement point at 1.2732. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved downwards.
On the other hand, a Kamala Harris win will flip the GBP/USD upwards and move to the important resistance point at 1.3000.
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