Speculators who have been betting on upside to suddenly emerge in the GBP/USD because they believe the currency pair has been oversold have likely been hit by rather expensive losses.
The GBP/USD went into this weekend near the 1.25263 mark. Some traders going into Thursday and Friday may have been feeling rather good about the GBP/USD and its ability to perform slightly better than the EUR/USD which has seen bearish selling brew. However, this past Thursday the GBP/USD fell through the 1.26000 level and never recovered. The value of the GBP/USD is now testing ratios last seen in the first week of May 2024. The GBP/USD actually feel below the 1.25000 mark briefly on Friday.
Traders who are looking for calm conditions to return to Forex and the GBP/USD may simply want to turn their attention to other speculative assets. Global forex has taken the brunt of the force via the outcome of the U.S election and Donald Trump’s victory. Financial institutions trying to find a balanced outlook for the mid-term clearly remain nervous and Forex results have reflected this globally. The GBP/USD has correlated to the market as USD centric strength has dominated the playing field.
GBP/USD Economic Data and Behavioral Sentiment
Last week’s economic data from the U.K was lackluster, the U.S produced only slightly better results. This week will remain rather quiet regarding big data and its potential affect on Forex and the GBP/USD, and there is a major U.S holiday. The biggest shadow remains from President-elect Trump and economic policies he will enact. Financial institutions understand there will be an immediate effect and the trading results in Forex and the GBP/USD reflect fears.
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The belief that nervous selling is overdone is likely right, but the results of the downturn in the GBP/USD and its ability to penetrate important support near the 1.26000 is a warning sign the worst may not be over. Day traders who are hoping to simply find momentum and take advantage of it could do well in the current conditions, but they may have to make sure their trading perspectives are not being affected by their mid-term outlooks. The short-term in Forex and the GBP/USD remains under pressure because of nervous sentiment. Economic data is not having hardly and effect on current values in Forex. Quick hitting trades are advised for retail traders without deep pockets.
Short-Term Speculation and Fears in Forex
The GBP/USD went into this weekend near lows. The incremental selling in the GBP/USD did show price velocity on Thursday downwards. Frequently this is a sign of an overreactive market and one in which reversals can be expected. However, betting on speculative reversals higher in the short-term should be treated with care in Forex.
- The inability of the GBP/USD to climb back above the 1.26000 could prove to be important in the near-term.
- Financial institutions may be looking at their short-term outlooks and trying to now consider what holiday trading will do in Forex.
- Thanksgiving will be celebrated in the U.S this coming Thursday.
- Meaning lighter volumes will be seen starting this Wednesday and then be followed by a vast vacuum on Thursday and only limited volumes on Friday.
- In other words, short-term trading could remain highly volatile and day traders should be very careful this week.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.24250 to 1.26560
Because the holidays are now approaching and this week will see extremely light volume after this Wednesday going into the weekend, GBP/USD traders will need to take precautions. Because of the price velocity seen late this past week, it is possible a reaction will occur on Monday and Tuesday. The low last Friday near the 1.24950 ratio was a sign additional pressure is a possibility in the days ahead.
Betting against the bearish trend in the GBP/USD in the coming days may prove to be expensive. If the GBP/USD remains under the 1.26000 level in the near-term this could be a sign that financial institutions may remain quite nervous about their outlooks and are unwilling to bet on upside suddenly emerging. Risk management in the GBP/USD and all of Forex this coming week will be important and there is a chance volatility will remain evident early.
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