- During my daily analysis of commodity markets, the gold market has caught my attention as it has seen such a beating.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to pay close attention to the US dollar, and I think we are starting to see a few things shift at this point that could open the entire market.
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Shifting Fundamentals
There are a lot of different things going on right now, but the one thing that we had seen recently, was that both the US dollar in the gold market could go up at the same time. We are seeing that split a bit, and I think a lot of this comes down to the US election. The reason I say this is that in the last 50 years, Pres. Trump was the only leader in the United States that didn’t find some type of new conflict to get involved in. If that pattern continues, it’s very likely that peace will break out in multiple areas as the United States will probably leave it alone. This takes the geopolitical premium out of the gold market.
That being said, a Trump administration is in exactly going to become spendthrift, although they are making noise about the idea of cutting out wasteful spending from the federal government. If that happens, it would be nothing short of a minor miracle. If the US government continues to spend the way it has, then sooner or later gold will be a major winner. Furthermore, you also have the argument that major central banks around the world are still buyers of gold, and I think that could very well be something that puts a bit of a floor into this market.
As far as the technical analysis is concerned, the $2600 level is an area that has been significant support, just as it has been significant resistance in the past. I don’t know if we hold that level, but this is an area that could cause a little bit of a bounce. If we break down below that level, then I think you need to pay close attention to the $2500 level, as a potential entry point.
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