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Natural Gas Forecast: Sideways Trading

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The natural gas markets were very noisy during the trading session on Thursday as we continued to hover around the $2.85 level.
  • The $2.85 level of course is an area that's been important multiple times in the past.
  • So, I think we've got a situation where we're just kind of killing time.
  • This is quite often the case in the natural gas markets, so none of this surprises me at this point in time.

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This does make a certain amount of sense considering that we are heading into the winter, but we also have warmer than usual temperatures. This generally means that you are looking at this through the prism of not sure what to do because demand isn't picking up the way people would like it to be. However, you also have to keep in mind that this is a market that is almost exclusively priced by what's going on in the northeastern part of the United States, transmission lines, and sometimes weather along the lines of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, we've seen a lot of hesitation over the last several weeks, but I think what we've got here is a potential bullish flag building. If we rally from here, the $3.15 level could be a significant barrier as has been massive resistance previously.

If we can break above the $3.15 level, then I think it opens up a much larger rally to the upside. Short-term pullbacks continue to attract a certain amount of attention during this time of year, with the 50-day EMA near the $2.75 level, and then near the $2.60 level where we have the 200-day EMA. As long as we stay above all of that, I don't think the analysis changes much. We're just killing time before we can go higher. Once we do, it will more likely than not have a lot of momentum attached to it.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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