- During my daily analysis of the NZD/USD pair, the market has gone back and forth on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading, as we had sold off quite drastically.
- That being said, the 0.5950 level is a minor support level, so I would not read too much into it. Because of this, I think you have to recognize the fact that the market could very well go lower, and still find plenty of support near the 0.5850 level.
- The 0.5850 level is a massive support level, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where anything below there could get rather ugly.
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Interest Rates
Interest rates in the United States continue to be important, as the bond market continues to have its own battles. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve has been cutting rates, but a lot of bond traders quite frankly don’t care.
If that’s going to be the case, it could drive up the value of the US dollar regardless. Furthermore, the election in the United States has confirmed that the US is going to be much more pro-business, as there is a Republican in the White House, and the Senate is controlled by that party. It appears that the House of Representatives will remain Republican as well, so one would have to assume that sooner or later the policies start to have an influence on the US dollar as well as the economy.
If we do break to the upside, the 0.6050 level will be an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to, with the 50 Day EMA sitting above there, offering a significant amount of resistance. If we were to break above there, then the market could open up a move to the 0.62 level, but I think that takes a Herculean effort. In general, I believe that the US dollar continues to be like a wrecking ball against most other things, including the New Zealand dollar.
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