- Dear my daily analysis of major currency pairs, I recognize that the New Zealand dollar is a currency that continues to see a lot of downward pressure, but we are also sitting on a significant support level just below.
- Because of this, I think this is a market that will be worth watching, as it could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what happens with the US dollar overall.
- While New Zealand isn’t necessarily a massive economy, it is a larger one, and therefore if we see the US dollar moving against it, you need to pay close attention.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis on this pair is quite simple, as it is very negative. The 0.59 level underneath will continue to be a massive support level, and if we could break down below there, the market could really start to unwind. All things being equal, this is a market that had formed the so-called “death cross” about 10 days ago when the 50 Day EMA broke below the 200 Day EMA. At this point, the 50 Day EMA is racing toward the 0.6050 level, an area that I think will see a certain amount of “market memory”, as traders will look at that as a major barrier.
Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to commodities, especially agricultural commodities, as it does produce quite a bit of food for places like Australia and Asia. With that being the case, we also have to keep an eye on the overall commodity sector, because they do tend to move in the same overall direction. Interest rates in New Zealand are lower than they have historically been, so that doesn’t help the Kiwi dollar either.
All things being equal, I think that we’ve got a real shot at seeing a lot of back and forth sideways grinding, and therefore I think you also recognize that short-term traders will probably be looking at this through the prism of going back and forth, taking advantage of a well-defined range between the 0.59 level on the bottom, and the 0.6050 level above. Longer-term, things are a lot less certain.
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