- In my daily analysis of the NZD/USD pair, the market had initially pulled back just a bit only to turn around and show signs of life.
- That being said, the market is somewhat neutral for the day, with a slightly positive attitude.
- At this point, short-term pullbacks will more likely than not end up offering buying opportunities, with the 0.5850 level underneath being a major support level.
Furthermore, we also have the stochastic oscillator crossing in the “oversold condition” at this point in time, and therefore I think a lot of technical traders will be interested in getting involved in this market.
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By bouncing the way we have, it does give us a potential for a move to the upside, perhaps to the 50 Day EMA, which is closer to the 0.60 level. Furthermore, we have the 0.6050 level offering resistance, so in general I think we’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at rallies from a short-term perspective, but I also recognize that the strength of the US dollar is likely to continue to be a major factor.
Risk Appetite
Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to risk appetite in general, but more specifically from Asia than anything else. After all, New Zealand sends most of its exports into Asia, via the agricultural sector. If the economy in Asia starts to pick up, then it drives of demand for all things from New Zealand, and of course Australia as well.
Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is also highly sensitive to the same things, so it does make a certain amount of sense that you watch the AUD/USD pair at the same time, because in general, one of these currencies will lead the other.
If we were to break down below the 0.5850 level, then the market is likely to fall apart, and we could see the US dollar swallow almost everything. We have seen is for some time now, so one would have to think that is still a very real possibility.
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