The USD/BRL has managed to trade lower the past few days and closed yesterday’s session near the 3.7472 mark, this as the currency pair has created a rather durable price range.
- On the 29th of October the USD/BRL was trading near the value the currency pair closed yesterday’s trading session.
- The USD/BRL price action the past few weeks has certainly seen a correlation to the stronger USD centric behavioral sentiment in Forex, but the currency pair may have also shown that financial institutions have leaned heavily into USD buying positions before the U.S election outcome was known.
The ability of the USD/BRL to develop perceived resistance levels technically around the 5.8000 level should not be discounted. Yes, the currency pair has traded above this level a bit the past handful of months, but perhaps this is a ratio day traders should use as a gauge for the time being as overbought territory. The closing price of nearly 5.7472 yesterday is still within sight of highs, yesterday’s apex did challenge the 5.8000 resistance level and then produced selling.
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USD Correlation and Brazilian Nervousness
Having attained a lower technical realm in the USD/BRL yesterday, which touched values last seen on the 13th of November is intriguing. This morning’s opening should be watched to see where price action leads and if the 5.7400 level holds as support, a flurry of short-term buying may be seen in the USD/BRL which will test range momentum. Speculators should use entry price orders to guard against rather ugly price fills.
Trading volume in the USD/BRL remains rather light compared to the more actively traded major currencies teamed against the USD, but there is enough price action that makes risk management and take profit orders needed. As the USD/BRL maintains its current price range traders should remain realistic with their targets and not look for sustained trends beyond near-term considerations. Financial institutions remain nervous about Brazilian fiscal policy and this will likely create sustained support levels for a while.
USD/BRL Speculative Perspectives
The election of Donald Trump has produced worrisome headwinds for the current Brazilian government if both sides are not able to deal effectively with each other. Nervous conditions which have been seen in global Forex have influenced some of the weakness in the Brazilian Real, but domestic concerns via government mandates from Lula da Silva’s Workers Party are not exactly seen in a favorable light by financial institutions either.
- The bullish trend of the USD/BRL should still be treated with respect.
- While resistance levels up above have been rather durable, they still may be a relatively solid place to use as targets for take profit targets.
- If support levels are maintained above the 5.7400 ratio today, looking for quick hitting targets above might be attractive speculatively.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.7530
Current Support: 5.7420
High Target: 5.7610
Low Target: 5.7380
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