Potential signal:
I’m a buyer of this pair if we can get above the 1.40 level. I would have a stop loss at the 1.39 level and aim for the 1.4250 region.
- The USD/CAD pair is a market that stands out during my daily analysis of major currency pairs, due to the fact that we continue to bank on the ceiling and try to break much higher.
- At this point, the market is likely to go looking to the 1.40 level above, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
- Anything above that level could have the US dollar really breaking higher against the Canadian dollar, which you will probably see play out ships other major currencies as well, as the US dollar tends to move in the same direction against most others.
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Technical Analysis
The 1.3950 level above of course is a major resistance barrier, and therefore think you will have to watch very closely. The fact that the market has pulled back the way it has tells me that there is still quite a bit of resistance above, and therefore I think it’s going to take quite a bit of momentum to finally break out to the upside.
By pulling back the way we have, we could see a much bigger pullback, perhaps reaching down to the 1.38 level. The 1.38 level is a major support level, and therefore think you need to watch very closely as to what happens to the market if we do drop to that level. The 50 Day EMA reaches near the 1.3750 level and looks as if it is ready to go higher, and therefore I think you have a situation where a lot of buyers just waiting to take advantage of any type of “cheap US dollars” that appear, especially against the Canadian dollar, which in and of itself has a lot of issues.
Oil is no longer the major factor in this pair at least, as although the Canadian dollar is considered to be a oil sensitive currency, the reality is that the United States produces a significant amount of crude oil, and under the trump administration, will more likely than not produce even more.
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