- You can see that the US dollar has been all over the place against the Swiss Franc during the trading session on Tuesday as we have tested the crucial 0.88 level.
- That being said, I think we are entering a period of consolidation here between 0.88 and 0.89.
- Some of the noise earlier in the day revolved around the Russians and Vladimir Putin updating their nuclear policy to include basically what's going on in Ukraine right now.
- Whether or not they'll actually do anything remains to be seen, but at this point in time, it certainly has a lot of traders on edge. We have seen a lot of the safe haven currencies pick up a bit early in the day, but now that we've gotten into the New York session, it looks like it's business as usual.
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This had the Swiss franc strengthening as well as the Japanese yen as you would expect. That being said, I find it kind of interesting that we bounced directly from the 0.88 level, and this goes right along with the thesis that I had previously that we will continue to see the US dollar rally. Because of this, I think the 200-day EMA underneath should be paid close attention to at the 0.875 level, as that could offer a bit of a floor in the market.
Also, if we can get a daily close above the 0.89 level, then it opens up the possibility of the US dollar going to the 0.90 level. In general, this is a market that still pays you to hang on to it. And I think that's one of the things that a lot of traders will be paying attention to going forward.
All things being equal, this is a market that is going to be very interesting to trade, and it does typically move slower than a lot of the bigger currency pairs, but a little bit of patience probably goes a long way in trying to take advantage of what I believe is going to be a longer term uptrend.
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