- In my daily analysis of the USD/CHF pair, it’s obvious that the US dollar has struggled a bit, perhaps due to the fact that there are a lot of things this week that could have a major influence on what happens with the greenback.
- Because of this, I would anticipate a lot of volatility, but quite frankly this is a pair that I think it’s still in the midst of trying to bottom, so I am still looking to the upside for a whole host of reasons.
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This Week
This week could be a bit of an anomaly and headache, due to the fact that we have the US elections on Tuesday, and traders will be watching very closely to see whether or not we get some type of government gridlock, or if we get some type of clean sweep. Regardless of which are politics are, if you are a trader on Wall Street, you do not want to see a clean sweep by either party, although it must be stated that due to the makeup of the congressional races, the only real possibility of a clean sweep in controlling all 3 branches the US government would be for the Republicans.
That being said, this will have a major influence on what happens with the US dollar next. Both administrations would of course spend into oblivion, it just really comes down to what they will be spending on. Furthermore, we also have the Federal Reserve and its interest rate on Thursday, which is expected to be a cut of 25 basis points, but it will be the statement afterwards that everybody watches. That statement could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where things might go next, and therefore of course you have to be very cautious about how the market interprets that.
It’s worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is offering support, at least at the moment, so with that being said I think you need to pay close attention to that indicator. If we were to break down below there, then the market could drop down to the 0.8550 level. On the upside, the 0.8750 level is of course a resistance barrier, which is now backed up by the 200 Day EMA.
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