The USD/INR has seen new highs in early trading this morning, and day traders who are speculating on the currency pair need to remain vigilant as the bullish trend flourishes in choppy conditions.
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- As of this writing the USD/INR is near the 84.4050 ratio as apex highs continue to be challenged in the currency pair. On the 5th of November the USD/INR was trading near the 84.0500 level.
- Since the election of Donald Trump in the U.S, the USD/INR has correlated to the broad Forex market and seen USD centric strength escalate.
While the Reserve Bank of India controls the Indian Rupee tightly, nervous sentiment in global financial institutions has likely also become evident inside the government of India regarding potential economic policy which will come from the new President-elect’s White House. The USD/INR has produced a rather solid bullish run upwards, but traders need to remain calm and consider technical implications. On the 7th of November the USD/INR did touch the 84.3900 vicinity.
New Highs and Near-Term Considerations in the USD/INR
The USD/INR did touch the 84.4200 area in early trading this morning, but then reversed slightly lower. Day traders also need to remain aware of the constant wide spreads in the USD/INR which means that pursuing the currency pair means strict tactical orders must be used. Entry price orders are highly recommended so a trader doesn’t get a fill that make their USD/INR vulnerable from the moment it starts. Large fluctuations in thinly traded Forex via the USD/INR makes it dangerous.
The USD/INR while trading near record highs as of this writing is still close to values it saw last week at this time. The difference in value is quite small, but traders who are using too much leverage certainly feel the pain of the price changes if the USD/INR moves in the wrong direction against them. Traders who believe the USD/INR is overbought need to remain cautious. While the Reserve Bank of India seems to have wished upon a weaker Indian Rupee, it is not clear they wanted the higher values now being seen in the USD/INR, which may cause near-term volatility if they choose to fight the trend.
How High is Too High for the USD/INR?
USD/INR traders may feel compelled to try and sell the currency pair based on the notion the movement has been too high. They might believe the overbought sentiment they feel is correct and the USD/INR will embark on a downwards path. However, day traders need to look at the long-term charts of the USD/INR to see this trend has been rather constant for more than a handful of months.
- The sudden rise in value in the USD/INR since the U.S election is noteworthy, but it may only be another ingredient in the weakness the Indian Rupee has displayed over the long-term.
- For the moment, looking for sustained moves lower in the USD/INR remains a difficult notion.
- Traders who want to wager on more upside are recommended to use solid risk management and consider trying to buy when they feel support levels have suddenly emerged.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 84.4075
Current Support: 84.4000
High Target: 84.4210
Low Target: 84.3710
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