- Despite risk aversion among investors, the US dollar remains more attractive to buy than the Japanese yen, even though both currencies are among the most important safe havens in times of uncertainty.
- Trump's trade continues to support the strength of the US dollar.
- During last week's trading, the US dollar against the Japanese yen USD/JPY pair jumped towards the resistance level of 155.88, near the highest for the currency pair in four months.
According to the Forex market trading, the price of the US dollar / Japanese yen rose by 1.79% during the trading of the current month. Moreover, the currency pair rose by 9.75% during the trading of the year 2024.
Decline in Japanese Inflation and its Impact on Central Bank Policy
According to economic data, Japan's core inflation rate slowed to a 9-month low of 2.3% in October, while the underlying inflation rate also fell to 2.3%, the lowest in six months, and slightly above expectations of 2.2%. On the other hand, Japan's manufacturing sector contracted more than expected in November, despite growth in services activity.
On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan's governor has indicated the possibility of raising interest rates again as early as December, citing the recent weakness in the Japanese yen. In addition, the Japanese prime minister is considering a $90 billion stimulus package to ease the impact of rising prices on households. However, the strong dollar and US Treasury yields have prevented the low-yielding Japanese yen from rising more than its recent performance.
Moreover, a Japanese survey showed that Japanese companies in China have become more pessimistic about the world's second-largest economy, with about two-thirds saying it is getting worse and nearly half cutting or halting their investments. About 64% of Japanese companies said the Chinese economy is worse than last year, according to the latest survey by the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The overall trend of the USD/JPY currency pair remains upward. The 14-period Relative Strength Index still has room to rise before moving towards oversold levels, which could happen if the bulls manage to push the pair towards the resistance levels of 155.85 and 157.00, respectively. The USD/JPY pair will remain within its current range until the return from the US holidays this week, which may affect liquidity and investor sentiment to start trading normally.
Conversely, and on the same timeframe, the upward trend of the USD/JPY currency pair will be breached if the bears return the pair towards the support level of 151.60. Otherwise, the overall trend will remain upward. We see that any downward movement of the currency pair may be an opportunity to buy. You can follow the trading signals for the USD/JPY and other free live trading signals on our website.
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