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USD/MXN Analysis: After Tumultuous Week Now Short-Term Considerations

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

The past week of trading in the USD/MXN was violent and a high of nearly 20.80400 was traversed, and then the currency pair reverse lower, but buying the past day and a half shows cautious attitudes.

USD/MXN Analysis Today - 11/11: USD/ZAR Outlook (Chart)

  • As of this writing the USD/MXN is near the 20.24550 realm depending on fluctuations being seen.
  • The current price of the USD/MXN is particularly interesting when viewed via a one month chart. While short-term traders may not care about one month technical perceptions, they should glance at the chart to understand the 20.25000 vicinity has acted as a magnet for several weeks, up until U.S election jitters caused a massive wave of upwards nervousness for the Mexican Peso.

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Upon the result of the U.S election showing Donald Trump had become the President-elect, the USD/MXN rocketed higher and touched the 20.80400 level in a fury. Volatility in the currency pair was demonstrated rapidly as financial institutions clearly became nervous regarding the USD/MXN, likely because Donald Trump has been a tough negotiator with Mexico regarding trade policies in the past.

USD/MXN Reversal Lower During Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut

Rather fast trading was not done yet, the U.S Federal Reserve last Thursday announced their interest rate cut and the USD/MXN promptly fell and touched the 19.75560 realm and then traded within the lower realms into Friday morning. However, caution showed it is far from dead in the USD/MXN as Friday progressed, this as the currency pair began to traverse upwards again and essentially went into the weekend near the 20.20000 price.

Trading this morning has been more tranquil compared to last week and short-term traders may again be able to pursue the USD/MXN without a fear of sudden spikes emerging. However, risk management needs to remain tight. The ability of the USD/MXN to reclaim a known price range near 20.25000 is intriguing, but financial institutions showed they are nervous about the implications of the Trump relationship with Mexico over the mid-term last Wednesday, meaning some price action upwards would not be a surprise.

U.S Data and a Search for Broad Forex Correlation

Yes, the broad Forex market has been nervous since last September. However, Mexico stands out as one of the nations the new White House administration in Washington D.C may choose to confront regarding trade policies again. Financial institutions will likely remain cautious in the USD/MXN over the mid-term particularly with a left leaning government in power in Mexico.

The near-term will see important U.S Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday, followed by more inflation numbers on Thursday.
Traders may view support levels in the USD/MXN in the short-term as a place to look for wagers expecting some upside price action.
The USD/MXN is going to be an interesting currency pair to watch in the coming days. Traders need to be careful.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 20.26500

Current Support: 20.23100

High Target: 20.28400

Low Target: 20.20100

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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