The USD/MXN was hit by an early surge higher this morning when news circulated that President-elect Trump will start his tariff negotiation with Mexico with a threatened 25% price tag.
- The USD/MXN is near the 20.63755 price as of this writing. Readers are urged to look at the value of the currency pair as they are reading this article to judge the volatility causing lightning quick changes.
- President-elect Trump isn’t sitting in the White House yet, but news that he will start his negotiations for changes with Mexico (and China too) with a tariff of 25% hit Forex and the USD/MXN with an immediate impact.
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Behavioral sentiment within the USD/MXN had already been fragile. Most financial institutions already knew President-elect Trump would negotiate with Mexico in a tough manner. However, the ability to start his trade talks early with Mexico by announcing his intentions last night was certainly a swift opening stance. Trump has proven before that he is able to negotiate terms that he believes are justified regarding trading agreements, Mexico experienced this in Trump’s first term as President.
The Road Traveled Before as a Guide
The ability of the USD/MXN to climb quickly was a nervous reaction, but a look at a one month chart shows the currency pair actually traded above this morning’s early values. However, the surge seen on the 6th of November was in the immediate wake of the Trump election victory. The highs around the 20.82000 vicinity early in November and this morning’s highs around the 20.75650 ratios are similar enough to consider this an area where financial institutions may believe the USD/MXN could situate if things do not go well with negotiations that are coming between the U.S and Mexico.
The fact that the U.S Thanksgiving holiday is coming this Thursday will be welcomed by financial institutions. However, trading today and tomorrow is certain to remain volatile in the USD/MXN. The broad Forex market reacted with USD centric strength early this morning on the tariff news, but it is the Mexican Peso that will face a true sustained test in the coming days, weeks and months.
USD/MXN Near-Term Speculation and Past Volatility
Retail traders who are brave enough to step into the USD/MXN in the near-term will need strict risk taking tactics including tight ordering systems. The fast paced price action in the USD/MXN is not going to disappear quickly. There may be opportunities regarding technical perspectives, but the currency pair remains in the higher levels of its long-term range. The downside appears to only have limited capability in the short-term and traders looking for lower moves should consider take profit tactics as a must. The potential of more speculative fireworks in the USD/MXN is very real.
- The ability to create some resistance above is not a guarantee that things will not grow more bullish for the currency pair.
- However, it is important to note financial institutions have been down this road before with President-elect Trump and the currency pair could turn lower eventually.
- Volatility hit the USD/MXN early in Trump’s first term as President and then things calmed down, and they will again. The question is when and how.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.67100
Current Support: 20.61090
High Target: 20.73600
Low Target: 20.51900
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