Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.15.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.90.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.35.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.37.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair continued to move at the same pace as it has been trading over the past few months. Currently, the price is stable around the same average it has been trading at during this week's trading at levels of 34.30 lira per dollar. It is worth noting that some analysts rule out the possibility of the lira recording significant movements, given the control of the Turkish monetary and financial authorities over the exchange rate of the lira.
Meanwhile, reports issued about a week ago revealed that the Central Bank and government banks in Turkey had intervened to support the lira by injecting about $500 million into the markets to counter the rise of the US dollar globally following the Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections. Obviously, this supported the dollar due to the financial policies that Trump is expected to enact upon his return to the White House.
Meanwhile, the central bank in the country has revised its inflation expectations in the country more negatively, as the decline in inflation slowed monthly over the past months of September and October.
In terms of data, the Turkish Statistical Institute announced an increase in house sales in October by 76.1% compared to the previous year, recording 165,138 houses, the highest since December 2022. Sales between January and October also increased by 11.9% to reach 1,112,374 houses, with Istanbul topping the list with 24,812 units, followed by Ankara and Izmir. Home sales to foreigners decreased by 16.3% in October to reach 2,122 houses, with Russian nationals topping the buyers. Also, Mortgaged home sales increased by 278.2%, accounting for 12.8% of total sales. Likewise, unmortgaged homes increased by 63.3% to reach 144,043 units, accounting for 87.2% of the total. Ultimately, sales of used homes increased by 66.5%, reflecting continued demand for real estate in Turkey.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair fluctuated on Thursday morning, with the price moving above the support levels represented by the ascending trendline, which the pair relies on, coinciding with the same levels of the 50-day moving average. Generally, the overall upward trend continues to control the pair, which is trading within an upward price channel as shown by the chart. Despite the current fluctuation, the Turkish lira price forecast still includes a rise in the pair with every dollar decline, which represents an opportunity to buy again.
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